In the complex landscape of traditional futures trading, where vast data and variables like real-time Limit Order Books (LOB) complicate price predictions, we introduce the FutureQuant Transformer model, leveraging attention mechanisms to navigate these challenges. Unlike conventional models focused on point predictions, the FutureQuant model excels in forecasting the range and volatility of future prices, thus offering richer insights for trading strategies. Its ability to parse and learn from intricate market patterns allows for enhanced decision-making, significantly improving risk management and achieving a notable average gain of 0.1193% per 30-minute trade over state-of-the-art models with a simple algorithm using factors such as RSI, ATR, and Bollinger Bands. This innovation marks a substantial leap forward in predictive analytics within the volatile domain of futures trading.
Biological brains demonstrate complex neural activity, where the timing and interplay between neurons is critical to how brains process information. Most deep learning architectures simplify neural activity by abstracting away temporal dynamics. In this paper we challenge that paradigm. By incorporating neuron-level processing and synchronization, we can effectively reintroduce neural timing as a foundational element. We present the Continuous Thought Machine (CTM), a model designed to leverage neural dynamics as its core representation. The CTM has two core innovations: (1) neuron-level temporal processing, where each neuron uses unique weight parameters to process a history of incoming signals; and (2) neural synchronization employed as a latent representation. The CTM aims to strike a balance between oversimplified neuron abstractions that improve computational efficiency, and biological realism. It operates at a level of abstraction that effectively captures essential temporal dynamics while remaining computationally tractable for deep learning. We demonstrate the CTM's strong performance and versatility across a range of challenging tasks, including ImageNet-1K classification, solving 2D mazes, sorting, parity computation, question-answering, and RL tasks. Beyond displaying rich internal representations and offering a natural avenue for interpretation owing to its internal process, the CTM is able to perform tasks that require complex sequential reasoning. The CTM can also leverage adaptive compute, where it can stop earlier for simpler tasks, or keep computing when faced with more challenging instances. The goal of this work is to share the CTM and its associated innovations, rather than pushing for new state-of-the-art results. To that end, we believe the CTM represents a significant step toward developing more biologically plausible and powerful artificial intelligence systems.
A critical assessment of reinforcement learning methods for microswimmer navigation in complex flows
Navigating in a fluid flow while being carried by it, using only information accessible from on-board sensors, is a problem commonly faced by small planktonic organisms. It is also directly relevant to autonomous robots deployed in the oceans. In the last ten years, the fluid mechanics community has widely adopted reinforcement learning, often in the form of its simplest implementations, to address this challenge. But it is unclear how good are the strategies learned by these algorithms. In this paper, we perform a quantitative assessment of reinforcement learning methods applied to navigation in partially observable flows. We first introduce a well-posed problem of directional navigation for which a quasi-optimal policy is known analytically. We then report on the poor performance and robustness of commonly used algorithms (Q-Learning, Advantage Actor Critic) in flows regularly encountered in the literature: Taylor-Green vortices, Arnold-Beltrami-Childress flow, and two-dimensional turbulence. We show that they are vastly surpassed by PPO (Proximal Policy Optimization), a more advanced algorithm that has established dominance across a wide range of benchmarks in the reinforcement learning community. In particular, our custom implementation of PPO matches the theoretical quasi-optimal performance in turbulent flow and does so in a robust manner. Reaching this result required the use of several additional techniques, such as vectorized environments and generalized advantage estimation, as well as hyperparameter optimization. This study demonstrates the importance of algorithm selection, implementation details, and fine-tuning for discovering truly smart autonomous navigation strategies in complex flows.
