StockFormer: A Swing Trading Strategy Based on STL Decomposition and Self-Attention Networks
Amidst ongoing market recalibration and increasing investor optimism, the U.S. stock market is experiencing a resurgence, prompting the need for sophisticated tools to protect and grow portfolios. Addressing this, we introduce "Stockformer," a cutting-edge deep learning framework optimized for swing trading, featuring the TopKDropout method for enhanced stock selection. By integrating STL decomposition and self-attention networks, Stockformer utilizes the S&P 500's complex data to refine stock return predictions. Our methodology entailed segmenting data for training and validation (January 2021 to January 2023) and testing (February to June 2023). During testing, Stockformer's predictions outperformed ten industry models, achieving superior precision in key predictive accuracy indicators (MAE, RMSE, MAPE), with a remarkable accuracy rate of 62.39% in detecting market trends. In our backtests, Stockformer's swing trading strategy yielded a cumulative return of 13.19% and an annualized return of 30.80%, significantly surpassing current state-of-the-art models. Stockformer has emerged as a beacon of innovation in these volatile times, offering investors a potent tool for market forecasting. To advance the field and foster community collaboration, we have open-sourced Stockformer, available at StockFormer
CRISIS ALERT:Forecasting Stock Market Crisis Events Using Machine Learning Methods
Historically, the economic recession often came abruptly and disastrously. For instance, during the 2008 financial crisis, the SP 500 fell 46 percent from October 2007 to March 2009. If we could detect the signals of the crisis earlier, we could have taken preventive measures. Therefore, driven by such motivation, we use advanced machine learning techniques, including Random Forest and Extreme Gradient Boosting, to predict any potential market crashes mainly in the US market. Also, we would like to compare the performance of these methods and examine which model is better for forecasting US stock market crashes. We apply our models on the daily financial market data, which tend to be more responsive with higher reporting frequencies. We consider 75 explanatory variables, including general US stock market indexes, SP 500 sector indexes, as well as market indicators that can be used for the purpose of crisis prediction. Finally, we conclude, with selected classification metrics, that the Extreme Gradient Boosting method performs the best in predicting US stock market crisis events.
