Raymond P. Burkholder - Things I Do - Economics

Machine Learning

nospam@example.com (Raymond P. Burkholder) — Sun, 14 Jan 2024 16:41:47 +0000

TSPP: A Unified Benchmarking Tool for Time-series Forecasting

While machine learning has witnessed significant advancements, the emphasis has largely been on data acquisition and model creation. However, achieving a comprehensive assessment of machine learning solutions in real-world settings necessitates standardization throughout the entire pipeline. This need is particularly acute in time series forecasting, where diverse settings impede meaningful comparisons between various methods. To bridge this gap, we propose a unified benchmarking framework that exposes the crucial modelling and machine learning decisions involved in developing time series forecasting models. This framework fosters seamless integration of models and datasets, aiding both practitioners and researchers in their development efforts. We benchmark recently proposed models within this framework, demonstrating that carefully implemented deep learning models with minimal effort can rival gradient-boosting decision trees requiring extensive feature engineering and expert knowledge.

Alberta Energy Program Research

nospam@example.com (Raymond P. Burkholder) — Mon, 27 Sep 2021 01:14:36 +0000

So have these for future reference, some sites I used for obtaining better pricing on my energy (natural gas and electricity):

Utilities Consumer Advocate - natural gas / electricity rate research & comparison shopping
How to Switch Your Energy Retailer - when switching providers, it is best to explicitly cancel, else they may charge fees, just because they can
Alberta Utilities Commission - more rate and provider information [ also useful for micro-generation/solar regulations and processes ]

Interest Rates, Hiding the Negative Sign

nospam@example.com (Raymond P. Burkholder) — Sun, 14 Mar 2021 16:47:45 +0000

When you purchase a Treasury note you are lending money to the government for a specified period of time (i.e. 30 days to 30 years) at a fixed rate of interest or yield. The risk of default on Treasuries has generally been considered nonexistent.
The federal government, with assistance from the Federal Reserve, can always print money to pay its debts. But this isn’t without risks. Because printing dollars to pay debts devalues the existing stock of dollar. So while the nominal return is preserved…the inflation adjusted return goes negative.
In short, inflation destroys Treasury values for investors. To account for expectations of rising inflation, yields rise. But this presents another problem for long term Treasury investors.
When Treasury yields go up, Treasury prices go down. Over the last eight months, the yield on the 10-Year Treasury note has increased from 0.5 percent to over 1.54 percent – or 104 basis points.
Treasury investors stand to face major losses. Moreover, as interest rates rise, and borrowing costs become more expensive, several other things happen.
High priced stocks become less attractive. In addition, higher borrowing costs make it harder for over leveraged zombie corporations, state governments, municipalities, and Washington to roll over their debts.
... the great monetary inflation has already happened. The great price inflation is picking up, regardless of what the Bureau of Labor Statics’ bogus CPI report says. Thus, it is certainly possible that the yield on the 10-Year Treasury note could increase another 50-basis points come summer.
There could be corporate debt, hedge fund, and pension fund financial blow ups galore. But this is exactly what the Fed is trying to avoid. The Fed wants inflation without higher interest rates.
-- Fifty Basis Points To Disaster - ZeroHedge

Irony

nospam@example.com (Raymond P. Burkholder) — Mon, 02 Sep 2019 18:44:28 +0000

Meanwhile, against this geopolitical backdrop we return from the summer to continue to see global markets which now aggressively buy equities for their yield and bonds for capital appreciation: which is a brilliant strategy until rates have been cut to new negative terminal lows and stock multiple expansion is at new highs: at which point the music stops and someone is left holding seriously over-priced and under-delivering cans. And nobody makes any returns at all – which will be a real big bang.

by Michael Every of Rabobank

On-Line Payment Solutions

nospam@example.com (Raymond P. Burkholder) — Wed, 13 Jun 2018 23:36:12 +0000

Stripe - is the best software platform for running an internet business. We handle billions of dollars every year for forward-thinking businesses around the world.
adyen - A single payments platform to accept payments anywhere, on any device
wirize.com - is a ready-made checkout payment built on Stripe. Collect one-time payments and sell your digital services in minutes (no code or website required).
ElioPay - By connecting to Stripe, PayPal and PayBear you can accept credit and debit cards in 135+ currencies, PayPal and 7 cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum (with more to come). [We don't actually process the payments as we connect to Stripe, PayPal and Paybear]
How to Accept Payments Online If You Can’t Use Stripe? -- two payment systems that could solve this problem: Gumroad and Paddle.
Show HN: Trolley lets you take payments from your static site --> Trolley

Payment Gateway Comparison: Guide to Ecommerce Payments compares PayPal, Stripe, Square, BrainTree, WePay, Authorize.net, 2CheckOut, MangoPay, WorldPay, Dwolla.

Macro Economics

nospam@example.com (Raymond P. Burkholder) — Mon, 22 Dec 2014 05:12:44 +0000

An interesting web site with much data and many charts, with one particular example: Gold to Oil Ratio Historical Chart

NWO: New World Order

nospam@example.com (Raymond P. Burkholder) — Mon, 22 Dec 2014 05:07:05 +0000

When reading about the Precious Metals, one can end up in the strangest places. One learns that the world is very interconnected. Underlying cause is not known for very visible effects.

A link to Comex Institutes Trading Collars For Precious Metals started my hop skip jump around. In simple terms, the CME expects higher volatility in the precious metals markets, particularly for gold and silver. For reasons yet unknown. The collars go in on Monday.

Derivatives and mass financial destruction talks about a worry that one or more G-SIBS (globally significant important banks) may fail. G-SIBS are counter-parties to a large fraction of $691 trillion gross nominal value in derivatives (about 9 times the global GDP). If there is instability in a major commodity market, say energy, and this instability vibrates through to other sectors via currency, credit or equity markets, insolvency may threaten G-SIBS via their lending and derivatives exposures. Various 'circuit breakers' are being enacted, with liability ultimately being transferred to government institutions.
Continue reading "NWO: New World Order"

Market Notes - 2010/04/02

nospam@example.com (Raymond P. Burkholder) — Sat, 03 Apr 2010 02:05:16 +0000

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary indicates that there have been 8.4 million American jobs lost due to the recession, and that it may take upwards of four years to recover those jobs. That would be a recovery of about 175,000 jobs per month, every month.
Continue reading "Market Notes - 2010/04/02"

They Who Have The Money

nospam@example.com (Raymond P. Burkholder) — Sun, 17 Jan 2010 04:07:47 +0000

Sometime this last week, someone made the observation of the fact that there was a 'hidden buyer' buying a large amount of treasuries during the weekly US Treasury auctions. There was speculation it might be the Chinese operating through private proxy parties.

The US government has a problem with all the money they are spending. Some one has to loan it to them. Hence the regular treasury auctions.

A couple figures came to mind. I believe I recall seeing that the Chinese have over one trillion US dollars due to trade imbalance between the US and China. Another figure has to do do with the fact that the US government has added over a trillion dollars to their defict through recent spending.

If you put those two numbers together, and tie them together with the 'hidden buyer' observation, perhaps it could be said that the Chinese are converting their US dollar currency holdings into US Treasury holdings. That way, not only have they made money through their exports, but they make additional revenue through the yields on the treasuries purchased.

Why The Mortgage Crisis Happened

nospam@example.com (Raymond P. Burkholder) — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 14:48:10 +0000

Written by M. Jay Wells

Obama's economic narrative of the mortgage crisis ignores the facts. He has put free-market capitalism at the root of the current mortgage industry debacle, denying the real history of government interference in that market.

On September 15, with banking giant Lehman Brothers filing for bankruptcy protection, Obama was given the opening to begin weaving his anti-capitalist storyline. And that he did. Artfully blurring the mortgage industry crisis with generalized tax policy, Obama declared,

"I certainly don't fault Senator McCain for these problems, but I do fault the economic philosophy he subscribes to. It's a philosophy we've had for the last eight years, one that says we should give more and more to those with the most and hope that prosperity trickles down to everyone else."

The words were carefully chosen. That day in Colorado marked his return to the teleprompter and a strictly refocused campaign message intent on surreptitiously fusing the mortgage industry woes and free-market capitalism in general. Confident the American people are primed for his socialist brand of "change," Obama maintained his anti-capitalist theme, "What we have seen in the last few days is nothing less than the final verdict on an economic philosophy that has completely failed." According to Obama, capitalism has been "rendered . . . a colossal failure."

His chat with a Toledo, Ohio, plumber showcases his socialist, redistributionist ideology:

"It's not that I want to punish your success. I just want to make sure that everybody who is behind you, that they've got a chance for success too. . . . I think when you spread the wealth around, it's good for everybody."

He had already said as much at an April debate where he said his plan was to "look at raising the capital gains tax for purposes of fairness" (after having just admitted that raising the tax would reduce revenues!). For Obama, increased federal revenue be damned, tax increases are nonetheless necessary for redistributionist "fairness."

Contrary to the Obama narrative, however, it is not free-market capitalism at the root of the current mortgage industry crisis, but rather the very socialism Obama hawks. The historical record makes this fact unmistakably clear.

Continue reading "Why The Mortgage Crisis Happened"